Tell Me the Odds! Looking into What it Takes to Make the NHL From the AHL
A little over a year ago we did a research project looking at what happens when a goalie hits the AHL and figuring out just how long they have before they lose their chance at being a NHLer even if it’s just for a season. Well today we’re going back down that road travelling a bit deeper taking into account more numbers and goalies than we did last project. Just like all research projects this begins with a question, what does a goalie have to do in the AHL numbers wise to find themselves in the NHL even if it’s just for a season?
Before diving in we need to set some parameters as to how this project will go. Data was collected on ~282 goalies, most retired or moved on from the AHL. Data is limited unfortunately due to the AHL only keeping goalie stats up until the 2005/06 season. Seasons previous to that are unavailable. What this project primarily looks at is the statistical path a goalie takes to their first NHL season which is defined as +10 NHL GP and less than 10 AHL GP. It doesn’t account for goalie stats that come after a goalie plays a full season in the NHL. For example Calvin Pickard and Anton Forsberg’s more recent seasons aren’t included because they’ve already made the NHL for at least a season. It also doesn’t include the stats/results of a goalie who made the NHL after being in the AHL then leaving for multiple seasons overseas such as Mikko Koskinen and the same goes for goalies who leave for 2 or more seasons then come back to the AHL. Both of these are extreme outlier situations that don’t have an impact despite being left out. The stat we’re focusing on is Goals Saved Above Average/30 Shots Against as this allows comparisons through the many years of AHL stats we do have. A 0.910 SV% in one season is not necessarily the same as a 0.910 SV% in any other year. Not to mention goalie stats below the NHL level are pretty scarce to begin with so considering all the options GSAA/30 was decided to be the best option available to do a project like this. Without any more rambling let’s get on with it.
Let’s start with the big picture or chart. What this big picture chart looks at is goalies that played at least one season in the NHL (the definition for that is +10 NHL GP, less than 10 AHL GP) and what their GSAA/30 in whatever their Draft Year was that particular season. Even more specifically the chart looks at what a goalies chances are if they post a positive GSAA/30 or a negative GSAA/30 to get in a NHL season. Just at a first glance what can we glean from this chart? Well if you post a positive GSAA/30 in your AHL DY+2 season you’re as close to a guarantee to playing a season in the NHL as you can possibly be at ~83%. Now posting a negative GSAA/30 at any point during you’re AHL career doesn’t bode well for your NHL chances. From your DY+2 to DY+5 if you have a negative GSAA/30 you still have a ~25% chance at being in the NHL for a season. Judging by the numbers if you’re positing a negative GSAA/30 the best time to do it is in your DY+3 as you still have a ~44% chance. Once you get past your DY+5 posting a negative GSAA/30 puts the odds firmly against you.
All AHL careers are not the same. A goalie that enters the AHL in his DY+3 is going to have different career expectations than a goalie joining the NHL in his DY+5. So now it’s time to dive a bit deeper with a lot of charts showing what posting a positive/negative GSAA/30 does to a goalies chances depending on when they joined the AHL and how many seasons in they are.
What stands out? If you join the AHL either in your DY+2 or DY+3 and you’re posting positive GSAA/30 numbers you essentially have 5 seasons before your odds of making the NHL drop. Now we have four instances of 100% chances of making the NHL after posting a positive GSAA/30: DY+2 5th season, DY+3 7th season, DY+5 8th season, and DY+11 1st season. In the case of DY+2 5th season there’s two goalies that posted a positive GSAA/30, Dustin Tokarski and Tom McCollum. Realistically it should read 50% because McCollum making the NHL is slim to none at this point but I don’t like making it final until it’s final. The DY+3 7th season belongs to Michael Leighton, the DY+5 8th season belongs to Steve Valiquette, and the DY+11 1st season belongs to Pavel Francouz. Either through lack of data or goalies still playing so far those are the only goalies to post positive GSAA/30 numbers in those particular situations. Some other notes posting a DY+4 goalie in the AHL you’re essentially a coin flip no matter what season it is. DY+6 goalies have it rough even when posting positive GSAA/30 numbers and even that 3rd season 60% rate is more than likely going to drop unless Lyon, Kaskisuo, or McIntyre end up in the NHL as full-time goalie for a season at some point. At just a glance a good AHL goalie that entered in their DY+2, DY+3, or DY+5 has a better chance at joining the NHL than any other time which is certainly curious.
What about posting a negative GSAA/30? Does it matter or is it a death sentence for your NHL hopes? Once again joining the AHL in your DY+2 or DY+3 just naturally increase your odds at making it into the NHL. You can post a negative GSAA/30 all the way into your 5th or 6th season and still have a chance to make it into the NHL. The curious part of the graph is the 1st season of a goalies DY+6 to DY+8. If you don’t post a positive GSAA/30 in that situation your NHL hopes are essentially done. It makes sense though as a younger goalie has more time to turn it around than a goalie entering the AHL in their mid-to-late 20’s. This is just some nice confirmation as to what we we’ve guessed at.
So this is a lot of information that’s useless unless we actually use it constructively. So why don’t we go through the current AHL goalie list and using the information we have, plus the big ole database not on display here that helped generate these graphs, to figure out what some goalies chances are at making the NHL.
Adam Huska: Currently sits at a -0.585 GSAA/30 in his 1st AHL season DY+5. From our graphs above we can see a negative GSAA/30 in his situation still has a 25% chance of making it into the NHL. The two closest goalies though to his -0.585 GSAA/30 that made the NHL are Mikko Koskinen (-0.519) and Keith Kinkaid (-0.249). Koskinen left the AHL after one season to spend a lot of time overseas before coming back to make it in the NHL. So that 25% is probably a bit lower considering his company.
Adam Werner: Just like Huska, Werner is in his 1st AHL season DY+5 but Werner currently has a 0.146 GSAA/30. That gives him ~47% chance at making the NHL at some point. Currently no goalie who posted a GSAA/30 between 0.100 and 0.199 has made it into the NHL though Kaapo Kahkonen should change that shortly.
Adin Hill: As a DY+3 AHL goalie he posted a -0.054 GSAA/30, 0.252, and currently a 0.350 GSAA/30. So if we’re just looking at the fact he’ll post a positive GSAA/30 in his 3rd AHL season puts him at a ~67% chance at making the NHL. We’ll dive a bit deeper and look at goalies who posted a negative GSAA/30 in their 1st season, followed by two positive GSAA/30 seasons. The goalies that have done the same as Hill: Anthony Stolarz, Laurent Brossoit, Dan LaCosta, Michael Hutchinson, Jacob Markstrom, and Thatcher Demko. Only LaCosta didn’t make the NHL for at least one season.
Connor Ingram: Have a potential goaltending opening in the NHL back-up position? If you do really consider trading for Ingram. Ingram has posted three straight positive GSAA/30 seasons which has only been done by six other goalies who joined the AHL in their DY+3. Those goalies: Jaroslav Halak, John Gibson, Philipp Grubauer, Jhonas Enroth, Al Montoya, and Petr Mrazek. Ingram currently holds a 0.780 GSAA/30 which would be the highest GSAA/30 a DY+3 goalie has ever posted in their 3rd AHL season. The current top 15 goalies to post the highest GSAA/30 in this situation only three goalies didn’t make it into the NHL for at least one season.
Filip Gustavsson: Ottawa fans are pretty happy with how Joey Daccord is doing in the AHL and how Marcus Hogberg is doing so far in the NHL. What about Gustavsson though? He’s in his second AHL season having joined in his DY+3. He posted a -0.496 GSAA/30 last season and currently holds a -0.617 GSAA/30 this year. Going by our graphs if he holds onto a negative GSAA/30 this year his NHL chances are ~23%. However DY+3 goalies who have posted two straight negative GSAA/30 seasons only one has made it out of 10. Gustavsson essentially has two more seasons before his time has run out and the Senators have to choose whether to let him have that chance here or make the most of whatever value he has now.
Jon Gillies: David Rittich has the starting net in Calgary and Cam Talbot is on a one-year contract. What are the chances Gillies can take over for Talbot next season? He started out strong with two straight seasons of positive GSAA/30 numbers but last season posted a negative GSAA/30 which if you join the AHL in your DY+5 your 3rd season really makes or breaks you. A goalie posting a negative GSAA/30 has a 12.5% chance of making it. Right now though Gillies is currently sitting on a 0.201 GSAA/30 which generally gives a goalie a 50% chance at making it in his situation and is honestly very unique in two positive GSAA/30 seasons, followed by a negative, and then coming back with a positive season.
Kaapo Kahkonen: I’ve watched him play, he has some NHL experience, and his AHL numbers all point to one thing…give this guy a job in the NHL next season. He’s about to post his second straight positive GSAA/30 AHL season in a row as a DY+5 goalie. 70% of the goalies who have done the same as Kahkonen made it into the NHL for at least one season. His 0.620 GSAA/30 is the highest among DY+5 goalies in their 2nd AHL season and of the 13 goalies to post a positive GSAA/30 in this situation ~61.5% made it into the NHL for at least one season. The odds and then some are in his favour.
We’re going to stop here. We could go through every single AHL goalie but by now you get the general idea. There’s at least some correlation as to what a goalie does in the AHL and if that leads to the NHL. We have a foundation and from here it’s just going to get more refined. As with everything sports related there will always be outliers which makes sports great! We’re just making the position a bit clearer.