How’s that goalie prospect doing? A Statistical Look At Goalie Prospects in the AHL

As much as it shouldn’t be, the AHL is essentially the dead zone for player hype especially goalies. There’s only so much time in the day and if the choice is between the NHL or AHL, people are watching the NHL more likely than not. However people are still interested in the AHL as they want to know who is coming up, who to be excited for and how that prospect is doing they heard about a year or so ago that put up crazy numbers in some junior league. With players it’s pretty straightforward, they score a lot of goals or put up a lot of points? With goalies it’s more difficult as all we have is essentially shots, saves, save percentage, goals against, games played and asking the average fan to decipher that is asking a bit much. What we’re going to do here is an exercise using stats Giants in the Crease has collected to try to figure out where some of the most talked about goalie prospects are headed.

Going to get out ahead of this in that no goalies discussed here have one played one AHL season or none at all. It takes a special kind of prospect to make only one AHL season matter and those actually are talked about enough that it’d be redundant talking about them. Instead the focus is on eight goalies who have been in the spotlight at various times that I’ve seen people interested or I’m personally curious about.

Joel Hofer

He’s popped up twice on the bigger stages in hockey, the 2020 World Junior Championships and the 2023 Men’s World Hockey Championships, but now is the time for Joel Hofer to put his name fully into the NHL discourse. You can consider this to be cheating a bit since he’s slated for the Blues no. 2 job and that’s fair. So let’s look at this in a different way, what does Hofer’s path to the NHL tell us about his potential career outcomes? Might be seeing some of this here so let’s get it started, Hofer’s Draft Year+3 and first AHL season was a write-off. It happened during the shortened COVID season and he only got in 9 starts with a 0.333 QS% (Quality Start %) and -0.102 GSAA/30 (Goals Saved Above Average per 30 shots against). That few of starts is extremely rare and if it was a full season he’s getting up into the 20-30’s putting him with the Samuel Montembeault’s/Stuart Skinner’s rather than the Matthew Villalta’s/Evan Cormier’s.

In his DY+4 Hofer took a big step forward getting 37 starts, putting up a 0.541 QS%, and 0.054 GSAA/30. This put him into the same realm DY+4 realm as Martin Jones, Alexander Georgiev, Chris Driedger in terms of DY+4 statistical performance. If we look at the path Hofer has taken going from a DY+3 AHL rookie season to DY+4 AHL season #2 the jump in statistical performance has two comparable goalies: Corey Crawford and Anthony Stolarz. For Hofer’s DY+5 he made a huge leap hitting the 0.538 GSAA/30 and 0.761 QS% marks in 46 starts making him a top 3 goalie in the AHL this past season. Usually by this point a DY+5 goalie having a great year is going to have some NHL time bringing down their AHL starts. There are a handful of goalies in Hofer’s GSAA/30 and QS% range but when you factor in starts there’s only two in Hofer’s orbit: Frederik Andersen and Eddie Lack. Going from DY+4 to DY+5 from Hofer’s starting point he’s on an island. There really hasn’t been a DY+3 goalie to make the kind of jump Hofer did from their DY+4 to DY+5. You’d have to look at goalies who had a below average DY+4 then had a good DY+5 to get even close to Hofer who went from an average DY+4 to a great DY+5.

That was a lot of numbers which mean nothing until we parse out what all of this…well means. The goalies that made the NHL following their DY+5 in the AHL with their AHL rookie season being their DY+3 with similar GSAA/30 results were: Jaroslav Halak, Stuart Skinner, Petr Mrazek, Josh Harding, Adin Hill. Only Halak had a higher GSAA/30 on this path. Looking at goalies who played their DY+5 then made the NHL full time without looking at their path there’s very few goalies who match what Hofer did statistically: Frederik Andersen, Daniel Vladar, Jaroslav Halak. With all of this in mind and on the table it’s reasonable to speculate that Hofer will be a solid NHLer for years to come with a very good chance at becoming a no. 1 goalie in the future with his floor being a high end no. 2 goalie.

Justus Annunen

With Pavel Francouz out for who knows how long and it looking like Justus Annunen is next up on the depth chart now is the time for him to make an impression in front of the Avalanche coaching staff. Of course with goalies yet to hit the waiver wire and no idea publicly on how long Francouz will be out it’s not a guarantee Annunen sees any games to start the season in the NHL. With DY+4 goalies, goalies whose first AHL season is in their DY+4, they typically make the NHL after spending 2-3 seasons in the AHL and then after that it becomes rare to make it. With that in mind this season is looking even more important for Annunen as he’ll be a RFA after the season & Francouz’s contract is up after the season as well. This is a season of opportunity for Annunen who can make a big jump in his career with a big season.

As mentioned above Annunen came to the AHL full time in his DY+4 and had what can probably be best described as a season of adjustment. Was inconsistent to start the season, found his footing and consistency during the middle part of the season then just floundered to end the year with eight of his last nine starts being below a 0.835 SV% resulting in him finishing with 45 starts, 0.511 QS%, and a -0.301 GSAA/30. Just looking at DY+4 AHL rookies and GSAA/30 does not show a promising picture for Annunen. The goalies who posted a similar GSAA/30 in a similar DY+4 situation are Igor Bobkov, Landon Bow, Ivan Kulbalkov, Olivier Roy, and Scott Wedgewood. If you don’t recognize most of those names that’s unsurprising since they were out of the AHL rather quickly. If you’re looking at Annunen’s entire body of work it’s hard to find out who his best comparable is. We’ll lean towards his QS% and starts though to help find someone and there’s two candidates that come close to matching Annunen’s DY+4 in a vacuum: Alex Nedeljkovic and Mikhail Berdin.

This brings us to Annunen’s most recent AHL season: his DY+5 and second AHL season. Statistically it was a rather good year from Annunen who saw 40 starts finishing with a 0.700 QS%, 15.814 GSAA, and a 0.393 GSAA/30 putting him amongst the top 5-10 AHL goalies. Looking at goalies in Annunen’s DY+4 to DY+5 situation he’s an interesting case in that goalies that have his DY+4 rookie AHL season don’t follow it up with a good year making it difficult to find a comparable with Igor Bobkov, Jiri Patera and David Shantz making the best cases as a comparable on that path. Looking at Annunen’s DY+5 as a whole and ignoring the path he has a few better comparable goalies in Eddie Lack, Alex Nedeljkovic, and Jean-Francois Berube. There’s a NHL future for Annunen but as the comparable goalies have made it clear he’s far from a given to be any sort of NHL regular. Most likely scenario is a no. 3 goalie who provides a season or two of no. 2 level of goaltending on the right team. Should probably expect another two seasons of majority AHL time.

Cayden Primeau

Is it time? It feels like it’s time. After being taken in the 7th Round, having a great NCAA career followed by three good years in the AHL Cayden Primeau is waiver eligible and could see himself in the NHL this season. Being a Montreal Canadiens prospect he’s been the subject of talk for years now due to his success at Northeastern University. The Canadiens though have been quite reluctant to play him in the AHL and now with Montreal having Jake Allen/Samuel Montembeault it appears Primeau will be available to every team via waivers. The two questions to be asked with Primeau is should he be taken off waivers and what kind of NHL career lays ahead of him?

Primeau came into the AHL in his DY+3 and started off his AHL career rather well. He saw 32 starts along with a 0.625 QS% and 0.038 GSAA/30 which is definitely deflated by the fact Primeau only saw 26.5 SA/60 which is low. This puts him in the same statistical range as Josef Korenar, Michael DiPietro, Jake Oettinger, Vitek Vanacek and Jonathan Bernier. Unfortunately for Primeau his DY+4 and sophomore AHL season came at the height of COVID. He still put up good numbers though with 15 starts, 0.533 QS%, and a 0.224 GSAA/30. Due to the COVID season Primeau doesn’t really have a thorough DY+4 comparable though if he did Zachary Sawchenko would be the closest. If we look at Primeau’s DY+3>DY+4 path the comparable list extends to two goalies: Al Montoya and Adin Hill. With a more regular schedule and AHL season happening in Primeau’s DY+5 he put up another fine year with a 0.516 QS% and a 0.181 GSAA/30 in 31 starts. This puts him on par with the DY+5 performances Brian Elliott and Eric Comrie had. In terms of his DY+3>DY+4>DY+5 path his comparable still remains Al Montoya though if you really wanted to reach for another it’d probably be Michael Hutchinson.

Finally we’ve caught to last season, Primeau’s most recent AHL season and his DY+6. This was an important season as his 0.180 GSAA/30 ensured his chances at making the NHL kept steady at ~68%. Another season in the AHL though even with his GSAA/30 remaining a positive number will see him down to a 57% chance at making the NHL. With his 41 starts and 0.561 QS% to add to his 0.180 GSAA/30 the goalies he’s closest to matching up with are Tristan Jarry, Alex Lyon, Jon Gillies, and Jean-Francois Berube. Looking at the GSAA/30 path Primeau has taken up to this point it’s hard to find a comparable. Closest is probably Eric Comrie just based on the level of consistency up to their point in their respective DY+3>DY+4>DY+5>DY+6 paths. It’s almost a coin flip that Primeau will make the NHL this season though based on his AHL career up to this point we should see Primeau in the NHL at the latest next season getting is opportunity.

Joey Daccord

On the topic of goalies that have been a long time coming to get their NHL shot it finally looks like Ottawa draft pick and Seattle expansion draft pick Joey Daccord is in line for a full time NHL spot. Is this actually going to happen and does Daccord’s AHL career up to this point suggest this is more than a one-time thing? Let’s get into it because Daccord’s AHL career has been a long one. Daccord joined the AHL in his DY+6 which is definitely on the lower end of where goalies make their AHL debuts though it’s not rare. ~44 goalies have made their AHL debuts in their DY+6 and only eleven of them managed to grab a NHL job for a least a season. Daccord got off to a good start in his AHL rookie season seeing 23 starts while posting a 0.652 QS% and 0.270 GSAA/30 putting him in the same range as Devan Dubnyk and Kasimir Kaskisuo.

Now here where COVID comes in and throws a wrench into this whole project as Daccord’s DY+7 season was during the height of COVID so he only got into 10 games total between the AHL and NHL. It’s such a small sample size that it’s not worth mentioning. Now this hurts Daccord because typically if a DY+6 goalie is going to make the NHL it’ll be after two AHL seasons. It was back to the AHL for Daccord though for his DY+8 and he excelled as he should have as a goalie hoping for a NHL job in the future as he posted 32 starts with a 0.719 QS% along with a 0.640 GSAA/30. This puts him in pretty rare company with really only Anthony Stolarz as his comparable. Typically if you don’t make the NHL after your DY+8 after starting in the AHL in your DY+6 you’ve brought your odds close to zero. The DY+6>DY+7>DY+8 Daccord path hasn’t been done before though even discounting the COVID so he gave himself a chance to keep fighting for a NHL spot.

Daccord ensured his DY+9 season was going to be too good for Seattle or any other NHL team to ignore as he had another very good year which included a Calder Cup run that ended so close to success but just fell short. His 38 starts with a 0.684 QS% and 0.446 GSAA/30 put him among the best of goalies to play their DY+9 seasons in the AHL. There’s been no goalie who have done the AHL DY+6>DY+9 path and put up the high level results Daccord has. So we need to just look at his DY+9 in a vacuum and Daccord as two comparable goalies who are Aaron Dell and Max Lagace. The COVID season really threw a wrench into Daccord’s career and probably prevented him from getting his NHL shot. Now he’s going to get it and based on Daccord’s career path so far you should probably expect as a ceiling a good no. 3 goalie with probably 2-3 years of proving good no. 2 results.

Nico Daws

The New Jersey Devils have not been shy about being open to different options when it comes to finding a long-term solution in net. They traded for Vitek Vanacek, gave Mackenzie Blackwood another opportunity, they brought up Akira Schmid and let him run with the position, then in the playoffs swapped between Vanacek/Schmid like it was completely normal. Currently the Devils are going to run with Vanacek/Schmid as a goalie tandem but there’s no guarantees that it stays that way. After winning OHL Goalie of the Year and being the Team Canada goalie surprise, Nico Daws received a lot of eyes on him and then COVID hit putting Daws right back under the radar. He ended up in the DEL for his DY+2 during the height of COVID and officially began his AHL career in his DY+3 during the 2021/22 season.

In Daws’ AHL rookie season and DY+3 he got his AHL career off to a very good start. In 21 starts he posted a 0.667 QS% and 0.369 GSAA/30. This put him in the same range as Josef Korenar and Jake Oettinger. By positing a positive GSAA Daws puts himself in line with a 67% chance at playing at least one NHL season. In terms of where he is with his GSAA/30 among DY+3 AHL rookie goalies he’s essentially right in the middle of where nearly every one of the eight goalies above him makes it to the NHL and nearly every one of the six goalies below him don’t make it to the NHL. It’s the type of year that matters in terms of ensuring he’s starting off on the right foot. You’d rather start off with a 67% chance than a 36% chance and when you factor in where Daws GSAA/30 is compared to his fellow goalies you hope he ends up on the 67% of the fence.

For his DY+4 Daws did see some regression as he took on a bigger role with the Utica Comets. He started the most games with the team with 33 starts posting a 0.545 QS% and 0.022 GSAA/30. For the record Daws’ stats were a near identical copy of Akira Schmid’s. Despite the regression Daws DY+4 stat line in a vacuum bears promising fruit as the two closest goalies to Daws are Anthony Stolarz and Joel Hofer. When we’re looking at Daws DY+3>DY+4 path this puts him a similar situation as Martin Jones and Jake Allen. If Daws keeps on a similar path to Jones/Allen this coming DY+5 season isn’t going to be the most deciding factor, it’ll be Daws DY+6. For Daws to keep his chances of making the NHL high he’s going to need to post a GSAA/30 higher than 0.200 in his DY+5. To force a roster spot for next season Daws is going to need a top 5-10 season in the AHL such as a +0.500 GSAA/30. Daws making the Devils isn’t a given but his NHL chances are looking very promising not only in terms of making the NHL but giving himself a shot at the no. 1 position on a team in the future.

Arturs Silovs

Drafted in 2019 out of the sixth round Arturs Silovs hockey career has been a bit of a wild time for him. He was the first goalie from the 2019 class to receive an Entry-Level Contract (ELC) as the Canucks wanted to avoid a situation where they needed to make a fast trade after the 2018/19 season which saw the Canucks scrambling to cover for goalie injuries. Then of course along came COVID and after a fine season with the Barrie Colts of the OHL Silovs went back home to Latvia for the 2020/21 season. Then this past season Silovs rolls into the Men’s World Hockey Championships and not only does Silovs walk away with a Bronze Medal but is also named WHC MVP. Silovs has put himself on the radar of fans everywhere so it’s only right to look into what’s possibly next for Silovs.

His first season in the AHL was his DY+3 and it’s really hard to glean a whole lot from it. Silovs played ten games and only started nine in the AHL while in the ECHL he also played 10 games. In his DY+3 AHL time Silovs had a 0.444 QS% and -0.475 GSAA/30. Does it mean a whole lot? It matters a bit as DY+3 AHL rookies that post a negative GSAA/30 make the NHL ~36% of the time. However if you look at his GSAA/30 path the goalies around him are Filip Gustavsson, Jeff Glass, Anthony Stolarz, Stuart Skinner, and Nick Riopel. Taking into account his whole statistical DY+3 picture Silovs is in the company of Joel Hofer and Evan Cormier.

Thankfully this season, Silovs’ DY+4 and sophomore AHL season, Silovs was able to get a lot more playing time. Silovs saw a massive increase in starts going from 9 to 42 while also seeing his QS% rise to 0.619 and his GSAA/30 rise to 0.159 for a good DY+4 season. His overall DY+4 stat line is on the unique side making it a bit difficult to find goalies who had similar results. The closest to Silovs’ DY+4 results are some pretty favourable matches in Connor Hellebuyck, Anthony Stolarz, Martin Jones. Looking to his DY+3>DY+4 GSAA/30 path Silovs has near matches in Stuart Skinner, Jeff Glass, and Anthony Stolarz. Overall goalies who post positive GSAA/30 numbers find themselves in the NHL for at least a season ~76% of the time. Based on the goalies similar to Silovs’ path and how DY+3 goalies typically only take 2-3 AHL seasons to make the NHL this coming season is going to say a lot about where Silovs is headed. Currently it’s looking like the NHL with a chance later on at the no. 1 job though with the more likely outcome being in a 60/40 tandem role taking the no. 2 tandem job.

Dustin Wolf

I don’t know if we’ve ever seen the level of domination we’ve seen from Dustin Wolf as a goalie prospect in a very long time if not ever. It’s been five straight seasons of being the best goalie in the AHL/WHL racking up x2 WHL Top Goalie, x1 CHL Top Goalie, 2x AHL Top Goalie, 1x AHL Regular Season MVP awards. Drafted in 2019 out of the 7th round Dustin Wolf has made Calgary look like genius’ and is the last hope for Flames fans hoping to finally have the steady goaltending they’ve been looking for ever since Miika Kiprusoff retired. The question to be asked of course does any of this matter?

Wolf joined the AHL in his DY+3 after the height of COVID in the 2021/22 season and hit the ground running in a way we don’t see from 7th round picks. His 46 starts is higher than Rask, Comrie, Demko, Fucale, Skinner, Montembeault, Murray and many more. Only goalie in their DY+3 with more starts has been Jonathan Bernier at 53 starts. In Wolf’s 46 starts he flat out dominated finishing with a 0.761 QS% and 0.624 GSAA/30. Wolf’s full DY+3 stat line only has one goalie in his realm and it’s Matt Murray. When we look to Wolf’s DY+3 GSAA/30 path the goalies in his range are Kevin Poulin and Jaroslav Halak. It’s a promising start when only four goalies in their DY+3 AHL rookie years have a higher GSAA/30 than Wolf.

With the bar so high it’s really hard to maintain that level of results as very few goalies can keep up that high of play especially ones entering their DY+4 after an excellent DY+3. Wolf saw an increase in starts to 54 starts in the AHL with a bit of a drop in QS% to 0.685 but also saw his GSAA/30 go up to 0.850 putting him in rarified air. Wolf’s whole stat line only has one comparable DY+4 goalie in Jonathan Bernier. When it comes to Wolf’s DY+3>DY+4 path he only has one comparable in Jarolsav Halak. Every other goalie who started their AHL season great experienced some sort of drop off in GSAA/30. 18/19 goalies in their 2nd AHL season being their DY+4 also made the NHL for at least one season if they posted a GSAA/30 above 0.300. The only bust was Dan LaCosta who last played in the AHL in 2010 and he had a 0.705 GSAA/30 in his DY+4. This should lead to a good chuck of NHL games this season, have this be his last season in the AHL if he’s sent back, and puts him on a path for a high spot on the goalie chart. This is about as close to a sure thing as you can ask for.

Olivier Rodrigue

The son of an NHL goalie coach Olivier Rodrigue has been a favourite of public goalie scouts for awhile as he played with the structure/positioning of a NHL goalie. The Edmonton Oilers agreed with that public perception and drafted him in the 2nd round of the 2018 draft. With Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner on the roster there’s not an immediate spot for Rodrigue to make the team now however he will be waiver eligible starting next season so now’s the time to get on other teams radar at the very least.

As we’ve seen a lot of so far Rodrigue’s jump to the AHL coincided with the height of COVID. He made the jump into the AHL during his DY+3 after spending the first part of the year playing in Austria Rodrigue came back to join the Bakersfield Condors getting into 11 games and 8 starts. Understandably it wasn’t a great season though it was respectable in that he did have a 0.500 QS% and -0.215 GSAA/30. Puts him in the middle of Dylan Wells and Arturs Silovs when looking at his whole stat line. His DY+3 GSAA/30 path company has some bright spots but mostly not very exciting names in: Marek Schwarz, Zach Fucale, Matthew Villalta, Justin Pogge, Corey Crawford, Michael Hutchinson. Like I mentioned above though you can mostly write off the season. In his DY+4/2nd AHL season Rodrigue saw a bump in play time though nothing significant as he found himself getting 12 starts with a 0.500 QS% and -0.525 GSAA/30.

Rodrigue’s DY+4 season is another unique one in terms of his whole stat line with only Tyler Parsons really coming close. You don’t normally see a drop that big from DY+3>DY+4 on the GSAA/30 path leaving Rodrigue’s with really only Marek Schwarz as company. This all dropped him down to a ~24% chance at making the NHL though his path is obviously far from over but there’s been a slow burn development happening with Rodrigue. For his DY+5 Rodrigue saw yet another increase jumping up to 28 starts with a 0.571 QS% and 0.249 GSAA/30. This was obviously an important step as it brings him into the Curtis McEhlinney and Malcolm Subban range. Both goalies were NHLers in their careers. This shows in this DY+3>DY+4>DY+5 path as well as the two comparable goalies there are Filip Gustavsson and Vitek Vancaek. If Rodrigue can keep his results consistent while either getting more AHL starts or when in the no. 3 role he gets a decent amount of NHL time. Regression in results is not going to be ideal.