The Layperson’s Analytical Look At the Best Candidates for PWHL Free Agency

PWHL free agency is open and ready for business but publicly nothing has happened. Some rumours have started to come out from Ian Kennedy and Hailey Salvian (that I’ve seen, others could be talking about incoming signings too that I haven’t seen). While we wait though let’s take a look at candidates to be taken in free agency and we’re going to cover more than the 18 eligible to be signed. We’re also going to name candidates that might not get the 3-year contract but still get paid just on a shorter deal. Also want to give everyone a gentle reminder of a rule that I keep forgetting: no recent NCAA graduates are eligible for free agency. So no Soderberg, no Heise, no Jaques, etc. I do not have access to all the fun stats that people like Mikael Nahabedian have so don’t expect anything huge here but it’s a bit more in depth than your average overview so please keep reading (go check out Mikael’s work he’s on twitter @hunterofstats).

I’m going to make a lot of references to something called CWAR. Stands for Caveman Wins Above Replacement essentially taking the regular WAR stat and modifying it for use in women’s hockey where we only have the basic stats to use unlike the fancy people that have access to programs like inStat. I’ll also be referring to translated CWAR which is essentially taking career numbers from a league and finding what the equivalent would be in the upcoming theoretical PWHL season in order to better flatten the numbers out. Takes out the need for doing a CWAR/GP type number. For a more in-depth explanation on it check out my WHKYHAC presentation here (I’m at the 6 hour, 30 minute mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEvPfMno0cY

With that all out of the way let’s get down to the fun part and trying to parse out who the best candidates are for PWHL free agency (these are very loosely in order of preferred targets). Won’t be touching on goalies as I’ve already written about the goalie pool here: https://creasegiants.wixsite.com/index/single-post/how-many-no-1-goalies-are-there-available-for-the-pwhl

Marie-Philip Poulin (Signed in Montreal): This is the ultimate free space of PWHL free agency. Your only task is to manage to convince her to play in your city. There’s no doubt about the skill and talent that MPP still has despite hitting age 32 when you’d be seeing a sharp decline in most players ability. When you’re a HHOF talent and one of the best to ever play the game though aging curves have a lot less effect. MPP is a perfect candidate for one of the coveted 3-year, +80K contracts. When you lead the PWHPA in scoring, win PWHPA Forward of the Year, and were over a PPG at one of the most competitive WHC’s in memory teams will be lining up with black cheques. There’s also the fact she’s one of the best defensive forwards out there. No domestic league numbers translated to CWAR better than MPP’s on forward. Her CWAR has dipped a bit from the CWHL (7.3) to the PWHPA (6.41) so there’s some signs of aging happening. Honestly though there’s a better chance at her rebounding closer to her CWHL numbers or staying steady than dropping more. Megan Keller: When thinking about giving out one of these 3-year, +80K contracts there’s three general factors you’re taking into account the most: age, talent, position. When it comes to Megan Keller she’s hitting almost all of those factors out of the park. At 27 she’s reaching the end of her prime but at worse you see a bit of age related regression in the 3rd year of that contract. When it comes to her position she’s an elite no. 1 defender who will be in the contention for best defender her whole contract. When it comes to her talent she finished 4th in PWHPA CWAR this past season among defenders behind Lee Stecklein, Ella Shelton, and Laura Fortino. So why Keller here instead of either of those three? She’s the only whose PWHPA CWAR (14.66) is close to her WHC (11.15) and NCAA (9.51) numbers. Both Shelton & Stecklein have really never seen those types of numbers outside of the one PWHPA season so there’s legitimate concern that they’ll see regression whereas Keller should maintain her level of play. Lastly defence that produces offence has proven to be rare and very valuable so Keller should be a huge priority among GM’s.

Photo: Dave Holland Ella Shelton: If you want a top pairing defender who will play like a top pairing defender for at least half a decade and possibly longer Ella Shelton is one of the best options in free agency if not the best. She’s only 25yo and at the very start of her prime with what should be her peak play in front of her if it hasn’t already started. Once again she’s a defender that can play top pairing minutes and the huge added bonus is she can produce offence. She finished 2nd in CWAR in the PWHPA mostly in part because of her high goal totals and her 0.5 PPG. The concerning part is that type of goal production has never been apart of her career as she’s been more of a 0.16 (WHC) to 0.11 (NCAA) Goals Per Game (translated) compared to 0.567 (translated) she had in the PWHPA. With that in mind it feels odd to have her this high until you consider two factors. The first being as mentioned before she’s headed into what should be the best years of her career so a bump in production is to be expected though to that level is something else. So while some regression should take place there’s a really good chance she’s still one of the best in the league. What’s also an important to her game is she’s very defensively responsible which is what coaches love in a no. 1 defender. Lastly if you compare Shelton’s NCAA numbers with former CWHL players who went through the NCAA at worst you’re getting a Tara Watchorn or Jocelyne Larocque and you’re very happy with either one. Last lastly, Mikael has her as the 3rd best defender PWHL available right now only being Stecklein and Keller. Jaime Bourbonnais: If you lose out on Ella Shelton and really wanted her or you’ve managed to grab Shelton but want to create a new version of the Toronto Furies top pairing of Erin Ambrose/Renata Fast than Jaime Bourbonnais should be high on your radar. She’ll be 25yo in a few days (September 9th) and while she finished lower (9.33) than Shelton’s PWHPA CWAR (16.35) you can very much argue that Bourbonnais’ numbers being closer to what her NCAA career suggests she should be at (6.96) you’ll see less regression from this years numbers. If you look at Bourbonnais’ career as well it’s been one of constant improvement so as she’s starting out her prime years you can make a reasonable bet that this is about the type of defender Bourbonnais is going to be offensively at least. What’s most promising about Bourbonnais and considering her future is her NCAA Goals Per Game match up favourably with Brigette Lacquette and Blake Bolden who were both excellent top pair defenders in the CWHL. The best match in terms of NCAA Points Per Game and Goals Per Game is Kacey Bellamy so the comparables are looking very good for Bourbonnais. Laura Stacey (Signed in Montreal): The embodiment of the ideal modern center is Laura Stacey. She’s hard and quick on the forecheck, plays center, has a shot that she can score from distance with and possesses a very good two-way game. Pretty much a modern coaches dream. Statistically her NCAA numbers were never great as her NCAA numbers translate to a 1.77 CWAR but if you look at her team she suffers from the current problem Jade Iginla is going through. Just not a lot of offence talent to help out. Once she joins the CWHL she’s a top 10 forward in general and offensively. On Team Canada she plays her role as the speedy forechecker and staunch defensive forward we all know. Then this past season in the PWHPA she goes off and is a top 5 forward. The biggest concern is that she’s 29yo and about to exit her prime. Unless she takes some hard lower body injuries Stacey should be a safe bet on a 3-year contract as players of her skill level usually age very well. Whoever hires Kori Cheverie you can mark as a big contender for Stacey…unless she just signs where MPP goes in which case that’s the best 1-2 center punch in the league. Erin Ambrose: No matter where she is Erin Ambrose always finds a way to produce and always finds a way to be a work horse. You know exactly what you’re going to get with Ambrose and it’s high end top pairing play especially offensively. In the NCAA she was expected to be a season-to-season defender with a CWAR of 8.87 in the CWHL and in the CWHL had an actual 8.2 CWAR so she met high expectations though it did take her two seasons to really find her footing but since 18/19 she’s been a top defender in the world. In the World Championships she’s currently rocking a 9.93 translated CWAR and in the PWHPA this year she had a 7.88 CWAR. That was on a team that struggled offensively as they only finished with 3 players in the top 20 of scoring in a 4-team league. At age 29 Ambrose is starting to get close to the point where the aging curve starts to take effect however as has been mentioned before elite talent is effected by the aging curve in a smaller way than most players. You can count on Ambrose maintaining her effectiveness through a 3-year contract. Lee Stecklein: It feels odd keeping the PWHPA Defender of the Year off the list this long so we’re finally going to get to Lee Stecklein who absolutely balled out this year in the PWHPA. She’s been great on the defensive side for years and has contributed to the offence at a good rate nearly every season she’s played. This season though her offensive production blew up and showed a new side of Stecklein. Her NCAA (4.36) and World Championships (5.88) translated CWAR are obviously quite good so we know she can chip in offensively. It’s just when you post a 16.67 CWAR in the PWHPA in a single season that you start to get people talking. Obviously this was a career year and unlikely she sees the same offensive production unless someone can replicate the offensive environment she was in and even then that’s a tall order. Somewhere in the future is the end of her prime as she’s 29yo though this year proved there’s still quite a bit in the tank and she’ll be a great top pairing defender no matter what her role is. Though if you can find a Laura Fortino or get the actual Laura Fortino you might get that same chemistry going again.

Photo: Jim Davis

Loren Gabel: As a goalie you’re given a different perspective on the game of hockey and develop preferences (or bias if you want to go that way). A preference I developed is a love for players who can score with just a straight up shot. It’s pure talent to be able to score almost at will from range in a way that so many players just can’t. Players like Loren Gabel are hard to come by which is why she should be a priority for teams looking for a no. 1 center or just in building center depth. Her NCAA translated CWAR would place her in ~85th percentile meaning decent 1C or great 2C. This past year in the PHF she lit the league on fire earning PHF MVP, PHF Newcomer of the Year, All-Star Game MVP, etc. with a 6.3 CWAR (97th percentile) to boot. This far outstripped her NCAA expected CWAR of 3.5 but wasn’t far off her PWHPA CWAR of 4.96 so instead of thinking this is a career year with no hope of repeating it’s a lot more in line with Gabel entering her peak. At only 26yo Gabel has a high chance of being a franchise center for half a decade. Now it is fair to say she probably won’t repeat last year as the Boston Pride played firewagon hockey to a very successful level until it wasn’t anymore in the playoffs. If her floor though is still Noemie Marin that’s a player you can be very successful with as a team. Kennedy Marchment: If the league is looking for Lara Stalder but without the possibility of a felony being committed on the ice than Kennedy Marchment is who you’re looking for. They had very similar NCAA career offensive numbers with Marchment having a CWAR of 2.61 and Stalder 2.66 then in the SDHL you had Marchment with 4.36 while Stalder had a 5.28. Stalder built that up in 191 SDHL games compared to Marchment’s 106. Once you factor in that Marchment posted a 5.18 CWAR in the PHF the comparison makes a lot more sense. The other difference apart from intrusive thoughts including stabbing people with their skate is Stalder is more of a shooter and goal scorer than Marchment. Marchment will still score goals but does her best with a very good shooter on her line like Taylor Girard. While Marchment is headed into her 27yo season there’s no need for concern about her age and a 3-year +80K contract should 100% be on it’s way to her. Claire Thompson: The 2022 Olympic stand out and future doctor has finally made her way onto the list. Claire Thompson is apart of a small group of top pairing defenders just starting their primes and Thompson has the receipts to prove it she’s the real deal. Obviously her Olympics were fantastic but that’s just one tournament and players do get hot for two weeks. The biggest green flag on Thompson’s profile is her NCAA CWAR finished at 6.3 and this past season in the PWHPA she finished with a 6.73 CWAR. This indicates two things, she’s still her consistent self and showing improvement which is what you want to see when entering your prime. Another point in her favour to reassure general managers/coaches of the current Claire Thompson being the real deal is her NCAA Goals Per Game matches up really well with other defenders who have had success in the CWHL such as Erin Ambrose, Meaghan Mikkelson, and Amber Bowman. Thompson being this far down the list means nothing, it’ll just be teams personal preference and if a team prefers Thompson then no one should be displeased.

Savannah Harmon: Another defender? Well yes, teams win championships powered by their blueline managing to provide offence and trust me we’re about to run out of defenders that do on a consistent basis. Until that point though let’s talk about Savannah Harmon or as you might know her the USA blueliner who fans beg the coach to play. When Harmon does play she produces very well and puts up numbers that would be considered top 10 level which would make her a good no. 2 defender. She can carry your top pairing offensively but you’ll want to put her with someone known for their defence to better allow Harmon to do her thing. What bodes well for Harmon’s future success are a few factors, two of which we’ve already covered with Claire Thompson above. Firstly her NCAA CWAR (5.87) and PWHPA CWAR (6.12) shows the important signs of improvement as well as meeting expectations. Secondly her closest NCAA to CWHL comparable is Kacey Bellamy based on NCAA points per game and goals per game. Just looking at NCAA goals per game gives you Blake Bolden and Brigette Lacquette. Lastly Harmon is still in the middle of her prime and a 3-year contract will take her right to the end of her prime. Emily Clark (Signed in Ottawa): If you’re not getting MPP then you’re more than likely not going to get Laura Stacey taking off one of the best two-way centers and forecheckers in the game who apparently has more of an offensive touch than we were lead to believe. If you’ve followed Clark’s career up to the 22/23 season then you’d know her well earned reputation of being a great blue collar worker on the ice. Then in the 22/23 season we saw her explode while on a line with MPP and Jessie Eldridge showing what she can do when with two offensively gifted players who are also good two-way forwards. Clark’s NCAA CWAR numbers (2.41) put her in the realm of being a good no. 2 center with her closest comparable being Blayre Turnbull based on NCAA numbers. Both saw an increase in their offensive numbers with Clark seeing herself finish with the 4th best translated CWAR of the PWHPA (5.35). Obviously the concern is can the offensive production be reproduced and if not what kind of regression are we looking at. Firstly it’s reasonable to believe Clark can at least get close to that level of production especially if you can find some fellow two-way forwards to match her up with. In terms of regression and reproducing those results what Clark has going in her favour is she can score goals. Being able to score goals is very important in carrying on a good baseline of offensive production if you aren’t known for your elite offensive skill/playmaking. Jessie Eldridge: We already have 2/3 of Team Harvey’s top line that ran over the PWHPA so why not get to the last 1/3 of that line in Jessie Eldridge. In general she’s the younger version of Emily Clark with less of a proven resume and inclined to play more offensively than defensively but can still handle the game defensively. Coaches are not going to be disappointed with her ability to get in on the forecheck and be disruptive. Finding chemistry with MPP and Emily Clark obviously helped out Elridge’s numbers though a lesson to take out of this could be Eldridge has more playmaking skill than previously thought. In the NCAA she was a goal scorer primarily but still could put up assists putting her NCAA numbers into the realm of a comparable player in Cayley Mercer who had a very good CWHL career. Offensively Eldridge has quite similar NCAA numbers to Clark while also having the edge over Clark. Eldridge never played with the offensive talent that Clark did and really took on the triggerwoman role in her final two years with Colgate. What makes Elridge a very attractive free agent is she’s shown she can take on any role on a top line. She can be the trigger, she can be the playmaker, the two way player, a forechecker and a center. Elridge is just starting her prime and should be expected to be a good no. 1 center at least with the potential to be more. Abby Roque: Could probably take the last two player summaries and apply them to Abby Roque. Her NCAA CWAR (2.61) is a bit higher than Clark’s and Eldridge’s though it’s just by an edge. Another difference is that Eldridge and Clark have shown a preference for goal scoring whereas Roque is more of a playmaker. Roque’s NCAA career points per game (1.1) and goals per game (0.36) number combination is pretty unique in the women’s pro hockey space so finding a comparable was a bit tough but did manage to find two. The two being Lara Stalder who was a bit better in both stats and Erica Lawler who was a tad worse in both stats. Having either of their careers or somewhere in the middle would confirm Roque to be one of the elite. If you’re looking at Roque’s PWHPA CWAR (3.54) it’s good and in the 85th percentile which during the CWHL years would have her as a top 10 forward which is tough to rely on to carry a team to a championship. Give her a scoring wing similar to her Wisconsin days and the problem should be solved. Roque is also in her prime so with the right wingers she has the potential to put up those big number, carry the team offensively type seasons. Micah Zandee-Hart: Not another defender! Couldn’t resist putting Micah Zandee-Hart here when her offensive statistical profile reminds me of Abby Roque’s. Zanee-Hart just has such a unique NCAA career points per game (0.7) and goals per game (0.14) combination that it’s hard to find a direct comparable that played in the CWHL. Going by goals per game Zandee-Hart has one direct comparable in Britni Smith who played with the Toronto Furies and was a good top pairing defender for them. There are two comparable players going by NCAA points per game in Ella Shelton and Sarah Edney which are what you want to hear. All three comparable defenders have shown a player with Zandee-Hart’s statistical profile can reach even greater heights meaning her floor of 5.12 CWAR for next season via her NCAA numbers put her easily in a top pairing role. Now the concern is Zandee-Hart did not have a PWHPA season statistically finishing with a 0.820 CWAR. She played for Team Sonnet which just couldn’t generate offence and while Zandee-Hart does help offensively she’s not going to be the defender that drives the play as she needs a partner who can to get the most out of her. Rebecca Johnston: Do you remember when I said some players on this list will be worth signing in free agency just not give a 3-year deal but still get paid? This is one of those times as Rebecca Johnston is one of the best forwards in the game and her only problem is she’s 33 turning 34 before the season starts. She’s a veteran star player who still manages to produce at a high level and so far has defied the aging curve. Her only weak numbers have been on Team Canada where she wasn’t really given a top 6 role until semi-recently. At her peak she’d be giving MPP a run for CWHL MVP and during Johnston’s prime she’s just been consistently elite. Even this year in the PWHPA her translated CWAR would have been 5.71 putting her only behind MPP. Even if she declines to her CWHL CWAR (4.51) that’s still in the 92nd percentile for forwards. Her production is just too good to ignore and should she go unsigned expect her to be taken in the 1st round.

Graphic: PWHL Ottawa Brianne Jenner (Signed in Ottawa): Despite her age of being 32 you can bet a 3-year, +80K deal will be worth it the whole way for Brianne Jenner. If defying an aging curve and just being consistently the same player with no up or down deviations was a player that player would be Jenner. Even on Team Sonnet Jenner still found a way to produce (4.11) that’s been in line with essentially the rest of her career. She’s had one of the highest NCAA CWAR numbers (4.66) that’s translated to a stellar career where she’s been one of the most consistent WHC performers (4.37) and in the CWHL (3.79 though it’s 4.11 when you take away her CWHL pre-NCAA season). Jenner also brings a physical and defensive element not many other forwards have in their games. It’s a real shame Jenner/Roque didn’t have more statistical success as they were fun to watch together. Jenner has shown she can hit peaks up in the low 90th percentile range while her regular play isn’t much further down. A consistent offensive producer, with a good two-way game that plays center, and has some power forward attributes means general manager’s are not going to care so much about the age aspect. Kristin O’Neill: Kristin O’Neill is Cornell Universities response to Cornell having Jessie Eldridge. If you look at the path they took in their NCAA career and the kind of players they are it’s as if O’Neill is the shorter clone of Eldridge. Now whereas Eldridge had to take on the playmaking and goal scoring role depending on what the team required of her O’Neill has always been focused on scoring. It’s tough to find a CWHL comparable who has had O’Neill’s NCAA statistical career but the closest might be one of the most promising paths for O’Neill in Jill Saulnier. O’Neill has a slightly higher NCAA goals per game (0.65) than Saulnier (0.64) but the difference is negligible. What makes this comparable look good is O’Neill’s PWHPA CWAR (4.82) which is over Saulnier’s 3.87 which makes sense considering the roles they had to take in the NCAA where Saulnier was surrounded by known forward talent and Eldridge wasn’t. If the floor for O’Neill is Saulnier that’s an 88th percentile forward and if Eldridge is able to keep up her current level of play you’re looking at a high end center that knows how to put the puck in the net and get the puck to the net. Put a net crasher and playmaker on her line and I believe she’s really going to make a name for herself. Brittany Howard: Just centers galore available and if you have a preference as to what center you want you’ll have your choice. Soon to be 28 Brittany Howard is still in the middle of her prime and looking very good on the ice. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, goal scoring is very valuable which is where Howard excels. Her 0.8 PHF goals per game was only beat by Loren Gabel who played on a firewagon hockey team compared to Howard’s Toronto Six which wasn’t as free flowing. Howard’s stint in the PWHPA which encompassed 13 games saw her score 10 goals for a 0.77 goals per game. If you’re looking for a statistical comparable to Howard going by her NCAA numbers it’s Sabrina Harbec who had a very good CWHL career resulting in a 5.21 translated CWAR and two Clarkson Cups. Even if Howard hits her projected average of ~3.34 CWAR per season then she’s still a first line forward and necessary piece to a championship run.

Hilary Knight: There’s really no one in the game like her that can combine size and shooting the way Hilary Knight does. When she’s rushing down the ice either she’s taking an incredibly hard shot to stop or driving the net which is also very hard to stop. The tough part with this potential signing is Knight is 34yo and you can see the skating is starting to slip. That’s not to say she’s slow or it’s a major weakness but her ability to get by defenders via just speed has come to an end. In the NCAA (4.41 CWAR) and CWHL (4.24 CWAR) she translated her skills over successfully and met the high expectations. At the World Championships Knight has been a terror for teams as she’s been averaging a translated 6.76 CWAR which is among the best in the game. On Team Sonnet in the PWHPA though Knight’s numbers took a noticeable dip and put up a 2.24 CWAR. The upside here is Knight scores like nobodies business and her shot is still very dangerous. Sometimes you just need a shot to go in and Knight can do that. Downside is when does that aging curve start to really hit her hard? A 1-year deal would be preferable but a 2-year deal would be manageable. Just need to get a play driving and play making center.